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New Yorkers will discover the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who governs and defends the country's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to send military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democratic figures against each other. The election has become an acrimonious face-off, marked by accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has run on a agenda of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins in every poll conducted in October, and it is very much the younger man's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is Muslim. Recently, the independent was widely condemned as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby end to an election that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the near future.

National Implications

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to Americans' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of the candidate's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president eight years ago.

However, if Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce national Democrats' current model of cautious, lackluster resistance – a strategy that has angered grassroots members. A New York rejection of Mamdani's optimistic platform could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate personally. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent into office, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, not many had known him, and in reality, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held every edge. The classic establishment figure, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was elected to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has faced some challenges in the final phase, after footage surfaced appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in recent years. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd