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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action

The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.

Persistent Threats

Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.

Every new proposal from American administration follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.

Political Considerations

It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.

Existing Situation

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.